The StatFox Game Estimator ™ projects the final score and games statistics for each team. It factors in recent statistical averages, schedule strength, and home field advantage into each simulation. The Estimator does not factor in injuries, or any other type of non-statistical motivation. Where an estimated score differs significantly from the current line or total, the side with the edge is indicated. There are two different score estimates. The first factors in a team's estimated yardage gained with their yards gained per point ratio. The second estimate is derived by cross-referencing the yards per play estimates and turnovers with past games with similar stats. In addition to the estimated scores, watch out for any highlighted stat fields – red=bad, green=good. This may indicate a potential performance advantage or disadvantage in a given category. The trends in the StatFox Game Estimator section are called potential trends because these are the performance records of the teams when they’ve gained or allowed similar yardage to that projected by the estimator.
How do I use this?
Along with the Super Situations and Power Trends, the game estimator is one of the three most popular sections on the FoxSheets. The simplest way to use the estimator is to look for the green star edges in the game. However, this doesn't always tell the whole story. It is important to look beyond the projected scores and examine the statistics that are projected in the game. You should look for spots where a team's projected statistics in given area draw a green or red flag. Try to visualize how the game is going to play. ex. If a good rushing team matches up against a poor rushing defense, then that fact will be reflected in the team's projected rushing statistics. Look for spots where a team is projected to dominate in one or more areas that may not be reflected in the score. Also look for spots where an underdog might be more competitive statistically than the oddsmakers make it appear. ex. If an underdog projects to green statistics in offensive yards per play, then that is a good indicator that the will be able to move the football enough to stay in the game. Conversely if a favorite holds a huge edge in projected yards per play, then that is a sign that they may be able to totally dominate the game. Regardless of the evidence you point to, the point is that the projected score itself may not tell you the whole story.